Growth of Population

by J. C. Baird

Looking at the world population growth as a function of time we see that it increases exponentially. Population growth like this is due to a relationship where the next generation depends on the previous generation:

Pn+1 = bPn

where b is the birth rate. Things die and the population increase is modified by the death rate d.

Pn+1 = (b - d)Pn

If the death rate is greater than the birth rate then the population experiences exponential decay.

In many populations there are environmental limits. In the case of insects in a closed container, but having food introduced at a constant rate, the environmental limit will correspond to some maximum population. In the case of human populations the food supply in a region might limit the population. If the maximum population is called Mp then the available generation is (Mp - Pn) and the fraction possible at any given generation, n, is

(Mp - Pn)/Mp

The growth is therefore,

Pn+1 = (b - d)Pn(Mp - Pn)/Mp

This equation has the form

Xn+1 = aXn(1 - Xn)

and is called the Logistic equation.

This representation of population growth by a discrete equation contains more flexibility (more information) than its continuous, differential equation counter part. The differential equation does not exhibit fluctuations.

Probem: Set up the discrete population growth equation on a spread sheet with inputs xn for parameters a. Set up a graph of xn+1 vs. n = 1 to 50 and try different values of a from 0 to 4, etc.

Sketch the population vs. time for different values of the birth-rate-death-rate-environmental limit parameter.

An Answer

Alien Worms

The Fishery

Information on Cellular Atomata from the Internet

Cellular Atomata


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